82% of Canadians Support Oil Export Tax in Response to U.S. Tariffs

Survey reveals overwhelming support for retaliatory measures, suggesting a move to impose export taxes on oil shipments to the U.S. / AFP

A recent survey conducted by Nanos Research Group, commissioned by Bloomberg, indicates that a significant majority of Canadians support the idea of imposing an export tax on oil exports to the United States if President Donald Trump proceeds with his threatened tariffs on Canadian goods. According to the poll, 82% of Canadians are in favor of levying a tax on oil exports, aiming to increase costs for U.S. consumers and industries should the U.S. apply tariffs on Canadian products, excluding oil. The survey, conducted between January 31 and February 3 with a sample size of 1,077 Canadian citizens, reflects a margin of error of ±3% at a 95% confidence level.

The survey also shows that support for the export tax is strong across all regions, including Canada’s western Prairie provinces, which are home to the majority of the country’s oil reserves. In this region, 72% of respondents were in favor of the proposed tax. Furthermore, 79% of those surveyed believe that Canada should impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., even if it results in higher prices domestically, as a response to any U.S. tariffs.

Historically, the idea of a Canadian oil export tax has been a contentious political issue. However, the survey results clearly show how deeply frustrated Canadians are with the potential tariffs from the Trump administration. Bloomberg has suggested that this survey provides Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government with a strong public mandate to introduce an oil export tax as a retaliatory measure if Trump follows through with his tariff threats.

The survey results also hold significant implications for the future of U.S.-Canada trade relations. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Canada is the largest supplier of oil to the United States, accounting for 52% of all U.S. oil imports. In October of the previous year, the U.S. imported 4.6 million barrels of Canadian oil per day. The dependence of U.S. refineries in the Midwest on Canadian heavy crude means that imposing tariffs or an export tax on Canadian oil could disrupt oil production, leading to reduced supplies of petroleum products in the U.S. and a possible increase in the prices of gasoline and other petroleum products.

The escalating trade tensions began when President Trump signed an executive order on January 1, imposing a 25% blanket tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. This move was met with swift backlash from both countries, prompting the U.S. to delay the implementation of the tariffs for 30 days to negotiate border-related amendments with Canada and Mexico.

Should the tariffs be reintroduced, Trudeau’s government would have the opportunity to use the export tax as a retaliatory measure, which would impact both the U.S. energy market and its consumers. The prospect of a Canadian export tax has become a major political talking point, as both governments navigate the growing tension surrounding trade policies and national interests.